“October is historically the second busiest time for new presale launches aside from the Spring. Although we saw six new projects come to market, the absorption and general level of interest is well below long term averages. Even with another 0.25% rate cut in October, there has been little change in buyer urgency. As the sluggish presale market persists, we are seeing a steady increase in project cancellations and delayed project launches.” — Garde MacDonald, Director of Advisory, MLA Canada
Scarily Low Sales This Spooky Season
October saw more launches than August or September, with six new projects: two townhome and four wood frame condo developments, mostly in the Fraser Valley. Historically, October averages 14 launches and nearly 2,000 units, so activity remains well below normal. Absorption was soft at roughly 9%, driven largely by one successful Surrey project. Over the past five years, October has typically seen more than 550 new home sales, nearly matching this month’s total releases.
Lower Rates, But Still High Stakes
The Bank of Canada issued another rate cut, lowering the overnight rate to 2.25%. Despite stronger job numbers and slightly higher inflation, the move aimed to support growth amid weak global conditions and ongoing trade tensions. Further cuts are unlikely as the Bank adopts a cautious stance. While lower rates can bolster housing activity, policymakers remain wary of overstimulating demand, as seen during the pandemic’s housing surge.
Foggy Forecast, Buyers Are in the Driver’s Seat
November is expected to see around four new launches, mostly in Vancouver West, plus one in Squamish, marking its first in some time. Developers continue favouring extended preview periods before contract writing to gauge interest. Resale sales rose 20% in Greater Vancouver and 17% in the Fraser Valley month-over-month but remain 14 to 15% below last year. Listings dipped slightly but stay high year-over-year, keeping both markets firmly in buyers’ territory. With lower rates, steady inventory, and easing prices, recovery remains gradual as confidence rebuilds.
Coming soon! Stay tuned for our fully comprehensive overview of the macroeconomics, presale, and resale market video report in the November edition of the Presale Pulse.