October 2025 Real Estate Market Insights
Step into the October 2025 edition of Presale Pulse, where hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer unpack what’s behind today’s market hesitation: from softening GDP and rising unemployment to buyer confidence that’s yet to rebound. They also explore what seven new project launches this month could signal for the market ahead.
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SILENT SEPTEMBER
September mirrored August’s slowdown, with no new project launches and only one anticipated project delaying sales to October. This marked a significant deviation from the five-year average of eight launches and 350 sales for the month. Despite a 25-basis-point rate cut, presale demand remained stagnant as affordability pressures, low confidence, and job concerns kept buyers cautious. Developers are delaying launches until sustained momentum returns, focusing instead on refining unit mix, pricing, and incentive strategies, with many projects now pushed to spring 2026 or later.
CANADA AVOIDS RECESSION, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLIP
The Bank of Canada’s rate cut to 2.5% underscores economic fragility, intended to stimulate activity but also signaling weakness. July GDP rose 0.2%, but with August showing flat growth, Q3 annualized GDP is tracking around 0.5%, up from Q2’s contraction yet insufficient to restore confidence. Consumer sentiment continues to decline, reflecting persistent caution. Unemployment climbed to 7.1% in August, the highest (excluding the pandemic) in nearly a decade, with core working-age Canadians most affected. Manufacturing hubs have been particularly hard hit, and labour force participation has dropped to its lowest since 2020. Businesses remain hesitant to expand, meaning job recovery will likely be slow and uneven, despite hopes that lower immigration targets could relieve labour pressures.
HAUNTED BY HESITATION
October, (typically the busiest month for launches) is forecasted to see only seven projects (713 units), about half the usual volume. These will be primarily wood frame and townhome developments, concentrated in Greater Vancouver, with two in Surrey and additional launches in Coquitlam and Vancouver West. Developers are lengthening preview periods and taking a cautious, phased approach as they monitor buyer sentiment. Resale activity also remained subdued, with 1,875 sales in Greater Vancouver and 962 in the Fraser Valley, within 5% of last month and last year but 20–28% below ten-year averages. Active listings climbed to 17,079 (GV) and 10,583 (FV), reaching decade highs and pushing both regions further into buyer’s market territory (sales-to-listings ratios of 11.3% and 9%). Prices softened slightly - down 3.2% in Greater Vancouver and 5.4% in the Fraser Valley year-over-year. Although current conditions favour buyers, ongoing economic uncertainty, falling confidence, and rising unemployment continue to suppress demand, suggesting a muted finish to the year and little chance of a return to historical norms soon.
Presale Projects mentioned in this episode:
• Rindall – Woodbridge
• Queens on King George – Dawson + Sawyer
Links mentioned in this episode:
• October 2025 Presale Pulse Report
• MLA Advisory Services and Sample Reports
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