If you’ve been reading the headlines, or even if you haven’t, living in a city where real estate is talked about as much as the weather, then you’ve heard that the Lower Mainland housing market is hot. Naturally, talk is now turning to housing bubbles.

The real estate market is indeed active with most housing types and various regions posting positive numbers in sales increases and prices over the past six months. Not surprisingly, the focus is on the largest numbers which usually only reflect the detached market. Just focusing on the detached market can skew the statistics so, for a more accurate picture, here is a breakdown by each housing type:

• Detached – Detached homes are still king in the Lower Mainland. Although attitudes are changing, there is still a deep desire for the single family home and, with a scarcity of land surrounded by water and mountains, the single family market is going to continue to be active with strong sales activities and price increases. The further east you go, the price increase will be more modest but the numbers are still positive with about a 15% increase over last year in Greater Vancouver and about 10% through the Fraser Valley. Although benchmark prices for Vancouver have been well over a million for some time now, East Burnaby, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Surrey, Langley, Delta and beyond definitely offer more palatable options in the $600,000–$900,000 range.
• Attached/Townhome – When not looking at detached homes many people, especially families, opt for attached homes or townhomes. Although still positive, these numbers are far more consistent and balanced showing a benchmark price of $511,500 and about a 5% price increase over last year in Greater Vancouver, and about $304,900 and a 2% price increase in the Fraser Valley.
• Apartment – Similar to townhomes, apartment sales are also consistent and more balanced. Greater Vancouver is showing a $400,000 benchmark price and about a 6% price increase over last year. The Fraser Valley continues to experience some areas with gains and others with slight dips with a benchmark price of $192,000, which is about an average 1% decrease in pricing.

What does this all mean? Are we on the verge of a housing bubble in this active market? To compare, prior to the global economic crisis of 2008, we saw price increases of 15% in the detached market in Greater Vancouver with townhomes and apartments also hitting 15%. The Fraser Valley saw price increases of 10% for townhomes and 10–60% in some areas for apartments (even though it is traditionally a single family area). Therefore, although our single family market today is certainly active, it is based on supply and demand rather than speculation. Townhomes and apartments are far more modest in their sales activities and price increases. This is a good indication that we are not headed for a drastic drop but rather a normal market slow-down and correction. Especially if this year’s weaker than expected economy continues for a prolonged period of time.

Statistics are from the Real Estate Board of Great Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.