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May 2025 Presale Pulse

May 15, 2025

May 2025 Real Estate Market Insights

Welcome to the May 2025 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, presale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. 

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Macroeconomic: Housing Promises and Economic Pressures Shape Market Outlook

Following the recent federal election, Canadians are watching closely to see how newly proposed housing policies might impact the presale market. Two notable proposals from the re-elected Liberal minority government include a 50% reduction in municipal development charges for multi-residential projects and a GST exemption on new homes under $1 million for first-time buyers. While these measures aren’t expected to transform the market overnight, they could improve project feasibility for developers and help tip undecided buyers toward presale options. For first-time buyers, the GST exemption could represent savings of up to $50,000—significant, though not necessarily enough to overcome broader affordability challenges like mortgage qualification or down payment hurdles.

On the economic front, Canada's outlook remains uncertain. February posted the weakest GDP figures in over two years, down 0.2%, placing added pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider a rate cut, especially with inflation and newly introduced tariffs expected to weigh on future growth. March is forecasted to show a slight rebound, but many experts believe Q2 could bring negative GDP growth once the full impact of tariffs is reflected. While housing incentives may spark limited buyer activity, broader economic headwinds continue to challenge both consumer confidence and the pace of market recovery.

Presale: Spring Presale Market Slows, But End-User Demand Persists

Presale activity in 2025 has remained steady but subdued, with launch counts holding in the single digits each month. April saw seven projects come to market, totaling nearly 700 units—aligned with expectations but marking the lowest April launch volume since 2020. Political uncertainty ahead of the provincial election kept both buyers and developers cautious, delaying key decisions. With a pro-housing platform now in place, there’s renewed hope for market momentum, particularly among end-users. Projects like Westview and Ortus have drawn steady interest due to their desirable locations, space, and immediate move-in potential. End-user product continues to outperform investor-focused offerings, though some savvy investors are beginning to re-enter the market, especially where pricing and location align. However, April's absorption rate was a modest 14%, well below the five-year average of over 30%, underscoring a slower-than-usual spring market.

Looking ahead, May is expected to deliver six new project launches, totalling just over 630 units—mostly low-rise wood-frame homes in the Fraser Valley. Many of these are re-launches from earlier campaigns, aiming to reignite interest with refreshed marketing. Featured projects include Ridgewood by Polygon, a townhome community on Burke Mountain offering 3- and 4-bedroom homes priced from the high $1Ms to $1.4M+, which has already sold over 30 homes thanks to its thoughtful design and competitive pricing. Also highlighted is North Village Condos by Vesta Properties in Langley’s Latimer Heights, a final release of low-rise condos with sharp pricing starting under $300K. With over 1,000 units ready to launch in the Langley pipeline, buyer demand—particularly for well-priced, end-user-friendly homes—will be closely monitored through the summer.

Resale: A High Inventory, Low Urgency Buyer Market

Sales activity in both Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley saw modest month-over-month growth in April, but remained significantly below typical spring levels. Greater Vancouver recorded 2,163 sales (+3.4% MoM), and the Fraser Valley had 1,043 (+0.7% MoM), though both were down over 20% year-over-year. This lag in sales can be attributed to ongoing uncertainty—particularly around the federal election and economic conditions—which kept many buyers on the sidelines. Now that the election is behind us, there's optimism that more buyers may re-enter the market, though demand remains cautious for now.

Meanwhile, inventory continues to surge, with Greater Vancouver reaching 16,207 active listings (+11.4% MoM, +29.7% YoY) and the Fraser Valley hitting 10,046 (+9.0% MoM, +37.4% YoY)—levels not seen since 2019 and over a decade ago, respectively. This high inventory is giving buyers more leverage, increasing hesitation and stretching the home search timeline, which in turn adds more supply. Prices have started to soften slightly under this pressure, with Greater Vancouver home prices down 0.5% MoM and 1.8% YoY, and Fraser Valley prices down 3.5% YoY. For confident buyers, this combination of high supply, lower prices, and post-election clarity presents a compelling opportunity to act.

Presale Projects mentioned in this episode:

Links mentioned in this episode:

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