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January 2024 Trending Topic: 2024 Forecast

January 22, 2024

In this month's Presale Pulse Trending Topic, hosts Brittany Reimer and Suzana Goncalves discuss their forecast for BC's presale market in 2024. The central theme of the year is that, while presale will face multiple challenges in 2024, the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic. On the topic of interest rates, most analysts expect 3-4 cuts throughout the year, which will cause a lot of excitement in the market. However, caution is advised due to the unpredictability of market forecasts and the potential impact of geopolitical events on global inflation and local interest rates. While positive movement is likely, these cuts might not be sufficient to significantly improve affordability or revive certain market segments.

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In regards to home prices and sales volume, the demand for presale products is expected to stay consistent with 2023 levels, with moderate increases due to interest rate improvements, yet remaining below historic averages. Demand will likely be focused on 2-3 markets and vary greatly between different programs, indicating a challenging year for developers. Similar movements in benchmark prices are anticipated for resale homes as seen in 2023, with dips and peaks leading to moderate year-over-year appreciation. This is attributed to a constrained supply, exacerbated by high levels of immigration, which is expected to apply moderate upward pressure on prices. The dialogue concludes with a suggestion for viewers to stay alert for any developments that might affect the market, underscoring the importance of being prepared for a range of outcomes in an uncertain economic environment.

CHAPTERS

  • Intro (0:00) 
  • "Theme" of the year (0:37) 
  • Interest Rates (1:07) 
  • Home Prices and Sales Volume (3:05) 
  • Final Thoughts (4:50) 
  • Closing (6:05)

ADDITIONAL LINKS FOR THIS EPISODE:

COMING SOON: MLA INTEL 2024 

Our yearly report, MLA Intel, will be released later this month with expanded information on the 2024 forecast and a deep analysis of the real estate landscape for the coming year. Keep an eye out at mlacanada.ca or sign-up for Newswire to be the first to read the soon-to-drop report. 

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