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June 2023 Trending Topic: Past Predictions, Present Outcomes and Future Forecasts

June 20, 2023

In this episode of June 2023’s Trending Topic, Brittany Reimer and Suzana Goncalves reflect on predictions made by Ryan Lalonde and Cameron McNeill on the Vancouver Real Estate Podcast in the previous year and discuss new predictions for 2023. In this chat, they look at how those past predictions shook out in our market today and shift their focus to the recovery phase of the market and when it might begin.

Listen to this episode

 


MLA Canada's in-house advisory team's analysis has revealed two significant insights. Firstly, there is a strong correlation between the duration of the market's correction phase and the subsequent recovery phase. Historical data suggests that if it took 10 months for the market to reach its bottom, it would take approximately 11 months to return to its former peak. Applying this ratio to the current cycle, it is estimated that prices will regain their 2022 peaks by early 2024, assuming the bottom has been reached. Secondly, the analysis shows that in the past 20 years, major correction cycles have always been followed by major rebounds rather than extended plateaus, indicating the market's tendency to bounce back quickly.

Based on these findings, potential buyers should be cautious about trying to time the market perfectly. By the time prices start rebounding, it may be too late to secure the best deals. However, the present is still the optimal time to buy in the next five years, as waiting for a more certain market could lead to higher prices in the future. 

CHAPTERS

  • Intro (0:00)
  • Last Year's Predictions (0:53)
  • Looking Ahead (2:44)
  • Closing (4:47)

ADDITIONAL LINKS FOR THIS EPISODE:

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