July 18, 2024 MLA Black Book 2024

The MLA Black Book is a biannual detailed overview of the presale real estate marketplace spanning the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley regions. The MLA Black Book covers presale sales results, including active sub-markets, development and rezoning application activity, project launches, and upcoming releases to look out for in the next quarter. This market intelligence is brought to you by MLA Advisory. 

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MLA Advisory's Market Update

As we close out the remainder of 2024, the market appears to be closely aligned with our projections established at the year’s outset. MLA Advisory upholds the forecast presented in the 2024 MLA Intel publication, anticipating approximately 42 more project launches in H2, and a total of 110 new project launches by year end.

Presale project launch activity at this level would be an improvement from 2023, but still below historical norms and in line with slower years. With an estimated 110 projects, this would reflect activity approximately 17% above levels in 2023, but 15-25% below activity seen in 2021/2022. 

However, sales velocities remain low, and the average length of sales campaigns is extended. Sales team are adjusting from the frothy markets of the past in which some towers sell-out within weeks, to today’s reality of slower traffic, less conversion, and flat prices. Even as new project launch activity remains flat, the consequence is that there will be more competition in market, and that inventory is likely to accumulate until a broader recovery.  

MLA Advisory anticipates an overall same-year absorption rate of 35% over the second half of the year, with a broader recovery expected to only come with additional progress on the rate front in late 2025 to 2026. 

For information on active sub-markets, development and rezoning application activity, project launches, and upcoming releases to look out for in the next quarter download the report.