Steady as she goes (mostly)

2014 was marked by no major swings but measured growth in most sectors. Both the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board (GVREB) and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) are showing 5.7% and 2.8% benchmark price increases respectively and an increase of approximately 8% in sales. 2014 sales volumes more closely resembled 2010 numbers which was a very strong year for sales and price increases. In general and to nobody’s surprise, single family detached homes continue to be the most stable with increased sales and benchmark prices across the lower mainland.

Greater Vancouver

Almost all major municipalities in this region are showing positive movement in sales and benchmark prices over 1, 3 and 5 year segments. As of November 30, 2014 the Greater Vancouver benchmark price hit an all-time high at $637,300. It’s also notable that Burnaby South has in 2014 for the first time broken the
$1 Million barrier with a benchmark price of $1,037,100 for a single family, detached home due to a surge in renovations and new construction of older homes. Whistler and Squamish actually show the largest increases of over 8% in benchmark price in 2014 thanks largely to big improvements in the apartment sector (over 26% in Whistler). In new construction, Richmond and Burnaby will continue to see large amounts of inventory. Although demand and sales have been high in these areas, large amounts of supply have kept prices from jumping up too significantly and rather has kept increases more modest.

Fraser Valley

The Valley is less consistent and one needs to understand the nuances of each neighbourhood and various product types before buying and selling. Single family homes continue to be the most stable with modest benchmark price increases over the past 5 years and over 17% increase in sales volume this year. Townhomes are rebounding with a 2.2% benchmark price increase and over 4% increase in sales volume. This is an improvement from the 1-2% price decreases of the past few years. Although positive in most areas including an 8.8% benchmark price increase in North Surrey, South Surrey/White Rock showed the largest decrease at 5.9% over one year. This swing again points to the importance of understanding your neighbourhood and product type. Although sales volumes increased in the last two years in the apartment sector, the benchmark price dipped 3.5% this year and dipped everywhere except Abbotsford which saw a 5% increase this year. New construction is also having to be quite competitive and areas such as Cloverdale and Langley will potentially have a fair bit of supply added to the market making 2015 likely more unstable. As of November 30 the benchmark price of a detached home is $575,400, a townhouse is $298,900 and an apartment is $189,400.

2015: Forecasters are predicting modest but steady growth in 2015 across the Lower Mainland. However, as mentioned buyers and sellers will do well to understand subtle market variances in specific neighbourhoods particularly in the Fraser Valley.

View our MAC Intel forecast and analysis of the Vancouver real estate market in January 2015.