December 2024 Real Estate Market Insights
Welcome to the December 2024 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, presale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
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Macroeconomics: GDP Slows While Inflation Complicates Rate Cuts
In November, Canada’s macroeconomic environment presented a mixed picture of challenges and cautious optimism. GDP growth for the third quarter stood at 1%, aligning with economists' expectations but falling short of the Bank of Canada's revised forecast of 1.5%, itself already lowered from an initial 2.8%. Real GDP per capita, a more telling measure of economic health, declined by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction—a clear indicator of persistent economic strain. Meanwhile, inflation rose from 1.6% to 2% in October, complicating the Bank of Canada's decision on interest rate cuts, as it balances sluggish growth with rising consumer prices. Adding to the complexity, a temporary GST break aimed at boosting holiday spending may offer short-lived economic gains but risks stoking inflation further without addressing structural issues like housing affordability. Consumer confidence remains fragile, as uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and global economic shifts, including a new U.S. administration, continues to weigh heavily on households and investors alike.
Presale: Affordability and Incentives Key to Buyer Engagement
In November, the presale market in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley saw a mix of activity, with 7 new projects launching, totalling nearly 1,000 units. Overall, 2024 saw 115 projects launch across Metro Vancouver, releasing over 11,500 units, slightly below earlier projections of 13,500 units. Despite a challenging year with high interest rates and reduced investor activity, wood-frame projects dominated the market, particularly in the Fraser Valley, where over 60 projects introduced nearly 6,500 units. The absorption rate in November was 24%, reflecting typical seasonal trends, though still lower than desired. By year-end, the absorption rate for 2024 was around 40%, aligning with market expectations. As 2024 comes to a close, two wood-frame projects are set to launch in December, releasing 229 units. The focus on affordability and end-user demand, especially in areas like Surrey and South Surrey, has defined the year's presale activity. With a higher absorption rate in the Fraser Valley compared to Greater Vancouver, wood-frame homes and townhomes led the market in 2024.
Resale: November Sales Rebound Signals Market Momentum
In November, the Greater Vancouver presale market saw a mix of stability and caution, reflecting broader economic challenges. A total of 2,181 sales were recorded, marking a 17.1% decline from the previous month but a notable 28.1% increase year-over-year, indicating resilience despite shifting conditions. Active listings in the region reached 13,245, down 8.5% from June but still up 21.2% compared to the same period last year, maintaining balanced market dynamics with a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 17%. Pricing remained stable, with the Home Price Index (HPI) unchanged month-over-month and showing a modest 0.9% decrease year-over-year. Although activity was below the 10-year seasonal average, steady demand from end-user buyers helped sustain market momentum, supported by balanced conditions and subdued price volatility.
Presale Projects mentioned in this episode:
Links mentioned in this episode:
- December 2024 Presale Pulse Report
- MLA Advisory Services and Sample Reports
- Contact Advisory
- Subscribe to MLA Newswire
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