We are pleased to present the MLA Intel 2026 report, our annual deep dive into Metro Vancouver’s residential real estate market. This latest edition reflects on the year that was, examining the conditions that shaped presale, resale, and rental activity in 2025, while offering forward-looking insights as we move into 2026.
FUNDAMENTALS: A CONTINUATION YEAR DEFINED BY REALISM AND RESTRAINT
The 2025 market was marked by restraint rather than recovery. Despite easing interest rates, residential real estate activity across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley remained subdued, with buyer confidence constrained by affordability pressures, elevated construction costs, and ongoing economic uncertainty. Presale activity slowed further from already muted 2024 levels, while resale markets experienced historically weak transaction volumes alongside a sharp rise in active listings. Development feasibility remained challenged throughout the year. High construction and financing costs, extended approval timelines, and regulatory uncertainty contributed to project delays, recalibrations, and an increasing number of sites shifting from strata housing to rental. Investor participation remained largely absent, fundamentally reshaping the demand profile for new housing and limiting the viability of concrete condominium launches in particular.
As 2025 progressed, it became clear that the market was not undergoing a short-term correction, but rather transitioning through a prolonged adjustment period where product, pricing, and timing required greater discipline than in past cycles.
PRESALE AND RESALE MARKET SUMMARY: A YEAR OF LIMITED SALES MOMENTUM
Presale activity in 2025 was driven primarily by end users making necessity-based purchases. Presale launches fell well below long-term averages, with activity concentrated in wood-frame condominiums and townhomes that aligned more closely with affordability thresholds and end-user demand. Concrete launches were scarce and largely limited to phased master-planned developments, reflecting the absence of investor support. Developers increasingly relied on incentives to support absorption, ranging from reduced deposits and price adjustments to more attention-driven marketing strategies designed to generate traffic in a competitive environment. Even with these measures, same-year absorption remained modest, reinforcing the importance of realistic underwriting and strong sales execution.
On the resale side, 2025 marked the weakest year for transactions in more than two decades in Greater Vancouver, with similar softness observed across the Fraser Valley. Active inventory climbed to decade-plus highs, giving buyers greater choice and leverage while placing continued pressure on pricing and market momentum. Although pricing declines were generally modest, elevated resale inventory and unsold completed units continue to weigh on future presale viability in several markets.
RENTAL MARKET SUMMARY: RECORD SUPPLY AND SHIFTING CONDITIONS
The most pronounced shift in 2025 occurred in the rental market. Purpose-built rental completions reached record levels, supported by favourable financing conditions and policy incentives introduced in recent years. In addition, a growing share of newly completed strata condominiums entered the rental pool, pushing total rental supply delivered in 2025 to nearly double the 10-year average. As this wave of supply met moderating population growth, rental conditions began to soften across most submarkets. Asking rents declined year over year, incentives became more prevalent, and leasing competition intensified. While newer purpose-built rental projects often maintained higher advertised rents, effective rents increasingly depended on concessions and flexibility.
Looking ahead, submarkets with the largest pipelines, (particularly Vancouver East and Vancouver West), are expected to face continued downward pressure, while areas with more limited upcoming supply, such as North Vancouver and Downtown Vancouver, are likely to experience greater stabilization.
FORECAST: A CAUTIOUS PATH THROUGH 2026
Rather than a rebound year, 2026 is expected to be a continuation of the conditions that defined 2025. Presale launch activity is forecast to edge slightly higher, but absorption is expected to remain selective and pricing-sensitive, with limited tolerance for misaligned product or speculative launches. End-user-driven suburban markets such as Langley, Coquitlam, South Surrey, and Abbotsford are expected to outperform, while urban and investor-dependent markets continue to face headwinds from elevated inventory and softer demand. Rental completions are expected to remain elevated in 2026, placing ongoing pressure on rents and vacancy rates. Incentives are anticipated to play an even greater role in leasing strategies, with a continued shift toward more creative and attention-driven offerings.
Overall, success in 2026 will depend on realism, disciplined pricing, thoughtful product design, and strong advisory support. Momentum is expected to remain project-specific rather than market-wide, favouring well-capitalized sponsors with patient capital and clear strategies.
In addition to expanding on the above in-depth, the MLA Intel 2026 report contains:
- Presale market analysis across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley
- Resale market summaries and pricing comparisons
- Buyer profile shifts and demand insights
- Rental market performance, supply pipelines, and incentive trends
- Key policy highlights and regulatory updates
- Notable condominium and rental project spotlights
- Completions analysis and implications for future supply
- Product design benchmarks and best-in-class floorplans
- Presale and rental forecasts for 2026
This report, featuring insights and analysis from MLA Advisory and MLA Canada’s leadership team, is designed for developers, landowners, investors, and industry stakeholders seeking clear guidance and strategic perspective in an evolving and highly selective real estate market.
