Post

November 2024 Presale Pulse

November 15, 2024

November 2024 Real Estate Market Insights

Welcome to the November 2024 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, presale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. 

Download the Report

On the Run? Don't miss a beat. Listen to this Episode

 

Macroeconomics: Inflation Eases, But Growth Stalls in October

In October, the macroeconomic environment in Canada was marked by a mix of cautious optimism and lingering challenges. On the positive side, the Bank of Canada announced a 50-basis point cut to the overnight rate, signalling efforts to stimulate the sluggish economy. Inflation also eased significantly, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping to 1.6% in September, the lowest since the pandemic, aligning with the Bank’s target. However, GDP growth remained stagnant, with August showing no movement and third-quarter annualized growth estimated at just 1%, well below the Bank’s forecast. With the potential for further rate cuts in December, economic policy appears to be adjusting to stave off a possible recession. Meanwhile, immigration policies are set to shift in 2025, with reductions in permanent and temporary resident numbers, potentially slowing GDP growth further. These changes may ripple through the housing market, easing rental pressures but keeping the housing shortage in focus due to reduced housing starts.

Presale: October Brings New Projects But Low Buyer Absorption

The Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley presale market in October showed moderate activity as developers introduced 14 new projects, adding nearly 2,000 units to the market. This was an increase from September but remained lower than October 2023 levels, reflecting cautious optimism amidst economic uncertainty. Same-month absorption rates hit a historic low of 10%, with only 191 units sold, highlighting buyer hesitation despite easing interest rates and increased project launches. Wood frame developments dominated the market due to their affordability and faster completion times, appealing to end users such as first-time buyers and young families. Concrete projects, often larger and higher-priced, saw limited launches as developers remain wary of current absorption challenges. With interest rates expected to decline further, the market may see a gradual shift in buyer sentiment as developers prepare for potential momentum in early 2025.

Resale: October Sales Rebound Signals Market Momentum

The Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley resale market in October showed promising signs of recovery, with sales activity picking up significantly compared to recent months. While still below the 10-year average, sales in Greater Vancouver were only 5.5% under this benchmark—a substantial improvement from being 30% below just a month prior. The Fraser Valley saw similar momentum, with 1,330 sales in October, narrowing the gap to 13% below the 10-year average. Inventory levels decreased slightly from September due to rising demand but remain inflated, with Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley holding 26% and 29% more listings than their respective 10-year averages. Pricing held steady, with minor decreases of less than 1% month-over-month in both regions. The late October interest rate cut of 50 basis points is expected to further boost activity in the coming months, positioning the market for continued growth heading into the new year.

Presale Projects mentioned in this episode:

Links mentioned in this episode:

Subscribe to the MLA Canada YouTube Channel or find the Presale Pulse on your favourite audio streaming platform: Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, iHeart Radio