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October 2024 Presale Pulse

October 18, 2024

October 2024 Real Estate Market Insights

Welcome to the October 2024 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, presale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. 

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Macroeconomics: Interest Rate Cuts and Their Impact on Vancouver Real Estate

In September, the macroeconomic environment in the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate markets was notably influenced by significant developments in monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve initiated a 50 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in four years, which was more aggressive than the 25 basis point cuts observed in Canada. Cumulatively, Canada has seen a total decrease of 75 basis points, with speculation mounting that the Bank of Canada may follow suit with a rate cut larger than the typical 25 basis points by year-end, especially in light of stagnant GDP growth—recorded at just 0.2% in July and expected to hover around 1% for Q3, far below the predicted 2.8%. This economic backdrop has led to an appreciation of the Canadian dollar, reducing pressure on the Bank of Canada to maintain high interest rates, potentially paving the way for further mortgage rate reductions. This evolving landscape could stimulate housing market activity, making it a pivotal time for buyers and sellers alike.

Presale: Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Presale Markets Gain Momentum

In September, the presale markets in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley showed signs of renewed activity as developers launched nine new projects, adding approximately 1,000 units to the market. This uptick in launches resulted in a same-month absorption rate of around 25%, a notable improvement from August's 11%. Despite this increase in supply, the overall market remains sluggish, suggesting that demand has yet to fully align with the new inventory levels. However, the current buyer-friendly environment presents an excellent opportunity for prospective homeowners, with numerous projects offering attractive incentives and favourable deposit structures. Looking ahead to October, the market is expected to ramp up significantly, with 17 additional projects forecasted to launch, bringing over 2,500 new units into play. This increase indicates that developers are eager to capitalize on the recent economic climate, and as the market adapts, the longer preview periods will allow for better assessment of consumer interest before project launches.

Resale: Rising Inventory and Slowing Sales in Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley

In September, the resale market in the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley regions exhibited notable challenges, with sales figures reflecting a continued decline. Greater Vancouver recorded 1,852 sales, a decrease of 2.7% from the previous month and 3.8% year-over-year. Similarly, the Fraser Valley saw 982 sales, marking an 8% drop from August and a 10.7% decline from September of the previous year. Both regions experienced active listings climbing significantly, with Greater Vancouver up 8.1% month-over-month and 31.2% year-over-year, while the Fraser Valley recorded a 4.9% monthly increase and a 38.5% annual rise. This influx of inventory, coupled with buyer hesitance due to affordability concerns and the anticipation of future rate cuts, has shifted the market in favor of buyers, evident in the low sales-to-active-listing ratios of 12.8% in Greater Vancouver and 11% in the Fraser Valley. Consequently, both regions saw slight month-over-month declines in the Home Price Index (HPI), with a 1.4% drop observed in both areas, suggesting that while prices have remained relatively flat recently, the ongoing dynamics could lead to further decreases in the near term.

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