March 5, 2024 Seller's Markets Emerge in Metro Vancouver Resale

In February, real estate markets across Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, and Victoria exhibited signs of recovery, marked by consecutive months of sales growth. While the number of sales increased, each region faced challenges in reaching the 10-year seasonal average, signalling a cautious market. Sellers began to actively participate, leading to a shift towards seller's markets and increased sales-to-listings ratios. Despite varied price trends, all three regions demonstrated positive momentum, hinting at a more optimistic outlook as they enter the Spring market.

Signs of recovery continue in Greater Vancouver

The sales momentum observed in January persisted throughout February, marking a second consecutive month of growth in sales activity with a total of 2,070 sales recorded. Despite this growth, activity still remains 23.3% below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,699 for the month of February.

Although sales activity trailed behind the 10-year seasonal average, the number of new listings in February aligns with the typical average, indicating a revival in seller participation within the market. New listings increased month-over-month by 34.6%, with a total of 4,560 new listings, concluding February with a total of 9.634 active listings for the month.

Even with the rise in listings from January to February, the market has transitioned from a balanced state to a seller’s market as demand has kept pace with supply. Sitting at a sales-to-listings ratio of 22.4% across all product types, the shift towards a seller’s market becomes even more prominent when homes are separated by product type, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 31.3% for townhomes and 25.9% for condominiums

The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently stands at $1,183,000. While this represents a 1.9% increase month-over-month, the benchmark price remains 6.3% below peak values observed in April 2022.

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Muted Fraser Valley market marches forward

In February, overall sales activity in the Fraser Valley resale market continued on the upswing, but remained well below long-term averages. As encouraging inflation data trickles in and expectations for interest rate cuts mount some buyers are coming off the sidelines, but the market remains muted relative to a more typical year.

The Fraser Valley saw a total of 1,235 sales in February, up 32% from January, but 21% below the 10-year average. While a notable month-over-month increase, much of this effect was seasonal as transactions picked up in the Spring market. The region also saw 5,561 active listings in February, increasing 14% from the previous month, and 26% from February 2023.

Overall, the market has eased from the balanced market more typically seen in winter months, into a seller’s market with a sales-to-listings ratio of 22% in February. Likewise, average days-on-market (DOM) dropped from 28 days in January to just 13 in February. Together, these are indicators of increasing optimism in the market as listed homes transact at a higher velocity.

The MLS® HPI composite benchmark saw a month-to-month increase of 0.9% from January to $994,600, ending six consecutive months of price declines. Values in the region remain up 4.8% year-over-year but are 16.9% below values seen at the peak of the market in March 2022.

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Home values in Victoria hold firm into the Spring market

In February 2024, the Victoria Real Estate Board saw an increase of over 38% in sales activity from the previous month, but activity remained in line with levels seen a year before. The board recorded a total of 470 transactions, up from the 341 sales in January and the 460 seen in February 2023. Meanwhile, active listings totalled 2,364, a significant 30.7% increase from levels seen in February 2023. Overall, these changes have shifted the sales-to-listings ratio from buyer’s market territory of 11% in January, to nearing a seller’s market at 20% in February.

The HPI benchmark value for condominiums in the Victoria Core in February 2024 was $557,000, representing a 0.4% decline month-over-month. Condominium values in this region have declined in recent months but remain up year-over-year by 1.4%. Overall, we are seeing relative stability in the Victoria resale market, with positive momentum heading into the Spring market.

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