September 19, 2024 September 2024 Presale Pulse

September 2024 Real Estate Market Insights

Welcome to the September 2024 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, presale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

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Macroeconomics: Rate Cuts and Inflation Control Set The Tone for Fall

In August, the Canadian economy entered a period of transition, with notable changes in monetary policy. The Bank of Canada implemented its third consecutive rate cut, bringing the overnight rate down to 4.25%, with expectations of a further decrease to 3.75% by the end of the year. This shift comes as inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has stabilized at 2.5%, falling comfortably within the central bank's target range of 2-3%. As interest rates decline, homebuyers may experience some relief from previously high mortgage costs, though market sentiment and inventory levels will play a critical role in shaping the broader impact on real estate demand.

Presale: Limited August Launches Set Stage for Busy Fall

In August, the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley presale markets saw the launch of four projects, bringing 925 new units to the market. Despite this volume, same-month absorption rates remained modest at around 11%, a trend consistent with earlier months like May and June. August is typically a slower sales period due to lower seasonal demand, with many developers opting for limited releases to position themselves ahead of larger project launches in the fall. Looking ahead, the region is expected to see a surge in activity, with forecasts predicting nine project launches in September and October, adding roughly 950 units to the market. Major upcoming projects include Symposia by SFU in Burnaby and potentially Onyx in Metrotown.

Resale: A Buyers Market Looms

The Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley resale markets experienced a significant slowdown in August, with sales totalling 1,904, marking an 18.4% drop from the previous month and a 17.1% decline compared to the same time last year. Similarly, the Fraser Valley saw 1,067 sales, down 13.2% month-over-month and 15.2% year-over-year. Both regions performed over 25% below the ten-year seasonal average, with Fraser Valley recording its second-slowest August in a decade. Despite recent interest rate cuts, affordability challenges and hesitant buyer sentiment have continued to suppress demand. Meanwhile, active listings remain elevated, with Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley inventory up 37% from last year, edging both markets closer to a buyer’s market. However, prices have only softened slightly, with less than a 1% decline in home prices year-over-year, as sellers remain reluctant to lower their expectations.

Presale Projects mentioned in this episode:

Nido - Wanson Group
Symposia- Mosaic Homes
Onyx - Polygon Homes
Ortus - Icona Properties
Westview Townhomes - Trillium Projects
Terra Garden - New Guildford

Links mentioned in this episode:

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