October 5, 2023 SEPTEMBER RESALE MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF MORE BALANCED MARKET CONDITIONS

In the shift from Summer to Fall, the Metro Vancouver resale market saw a noticeable transition in market dynamics. While the market saw declining sales activity during September, it has also seen a corresponding rise in new property listings. These shifts signal the emergence of more balanced market conditions, with supply and demand achieving a more harmonious equilibrium.

SLOWER SALES AND BALANCED SUPPLY-DEMAND DYNAMICS IN THE GREATER VANCOUVER RESALE MARKET 

The summer slowdown has carried over into Fall as September has continued to experience a decline in sales activity. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,926 sales in September, representing a 16.1% decrease from the previous month. While activity is still 13.2% above sales in September 2022, the resale market is experiencing a slower Fall than normal, with sales sitting at 26.3% below the 10-year seasonal average.   

On the supply side, Greater Vancouver recorded 5,446 new listings in September, marking a 38% increase when compared to the previous month. These shifts in supply and demand have resulted in a decrease in the overall sales-to-listings ratio. from 24% for all product types to 18% - indicating a balanced market for the first time since the beginning of the year. 

While activity has declined in September, benchmark pricing has remained relatively stable across all product types at $1,203,300. This represents an overall decrease of 0.4% month-over-month but remains 4.4% above benchmark pricing recorded in September 2022.   

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 FRASER VALLEY RESALE MARKET SEES BALANCED CONDITIONS

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board in September continued to witness a decrease in sales, while new listings have gradually been on the rise, leading to a more balanced market. 

In September, 1,100 resales were recorded, a 13.6% decline from the previous month and a 22.6% increase from the previous year. Demand levels are currently below the usual seasonal trends for this time of year. Buyers remain cautious due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the interest rate environment, despite the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain rates at the beginning of the month.   

New listings in the Fraser Valley market totalled 2,860 in September. This represents a 9.1% increase from the previous month, and a 25.8% increase from the same month last year, bringing balanced conditions with the overall sales-to-active listing ratio standing at 17 percent. A balanced real estate market signifies an equilibrium between the supply of homes and the demand from buyers, leading to more stable property prices, equitable negotiation opportunities for both buyers and sellers and reasonable durations for listings to be on the market. 

These conditions have led the Fraser Valley's overall benchmark price to decline by 0.8% from the previous month, while on a year-to-year basis, benchmark prices remain up 2.1%. 

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SEPTEMBER SALES DIP, BENCHMARK PRICES INCREASE IN VICTORIA’S REAL ESTATE MARKET  

During the month of September, a total of 493 properties were sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region, a 9.4% decrease from the previous month but a 20.2% increase when compared to September 2022.  At the end of September 2023, the Victoria Real Estate Board reported 2,699 active listings for sale, reflecting an 8.4% increase compared to the previous month and a 17.3% increase from September 2022. This concurrent increase in supply and decrease in demand have led the region into more balanced market conditions. 
  
Despite this, benchmark prices in the Greater Victoria region remained up year-over-year. In September 2023, the benchmark price for a single-family home was $1,169,400, increasing by 0.5% when compared to September 2022. Similarly, the benchmark prices for condominiums and townhomes in Greater Victoria saw 0.4% and 1.6% increases, respectively, when compared to the previous year. 

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