September 21, 2023 Greater Vancouver September 2023 Pre-Sale Pulse

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September 2023 Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market Insights

Welcome to the September 2023 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Ryan Lalonde and Suzana Goncalves. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, pre-sale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. 

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Navigating Inflation Concerns: Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium

In August, the global economic stage was set at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where central bankers and policymakers convened to address inflation concerns. Inflation has declined from over 9% to around 3%, but getting to 2% from there may be equally challenging, with indications of one more rate hike by year-end. The prevailing sentiment was that despite potential near-term rate tightening, lower rates are on the horizon, which is encouraging news for the real estate market. Markets and banks are predicting rates to ease by July of next year, predicting as much as 2% through 2026. However, the tightening lending environment, increased use of private and alternative lenders, and a shift in mortgage strategies reflected the evolving landscape for borrowers in the region.

Metrotown's Pre-sale Real Estate Boom: Six Towers Ready to Launch

There was a noticeable shift towards increased activity in August, hinting at a promising Fall season ahead. Developers, who had been holding ready-to-go programs for some time, began bringing their projects to the market. This surge in confidence stemmed from previous months of stable price appreciation in the resale market, improvements in the likelihood of a soft landing, and the recent decision to pause interest rates by the Bank of Canada. The epicentre of this pre-sale activity was Burnaby, specifically in the Metrotown area, where six concrete towers were tracking for potential launches in the coming weeks and months. These included projects by renowned developers like Bosa, Concord, and Wesgroup, such as Citizen, Reign, Solhouse 6035, Greenhouse, Icon at Southgate Village, and Riviera on the Park. Overall, the market was poised for an exciting and dynamic period of pre-sale real estate activity in the region.

Sales Dip, but Demand Persists in the August Resale Market 

There was a notable decrease in sales in the resale market in August, which is typical for the summer months. Sales declined by 5.7% compared to July, totalling 2,296. This decline can be attributed to the combined factors of the seasonal slowdown and the interest rate hikes that occurred in July. However, it's worth highlighting that sales activity is still up by 21.4% compared to August 2022. Analyzing the market further, the decrease in sales activity appeared to be correlated with a decrease in supply. There were 10,082 active listings in August, with only 3,946 of them being new listings, reflecting a 15% drop from July. This limited supply, coupled with a sales-to-listings ratio of 24%, indicated that demand relative to supply remained consistent. The townhome and condominium markets still maintained seller's market conditions with ratios of 30% and 32%, respectively. Benchmark pricing remained relatively stable at $1,208,400, showing a slight 0.2% decrease from July but a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year. Despite a potential muted resale market in the upcoming fall season, most areas continued to experience positive year-over-year pricing trends.

Pre-sale Projects mentioned in this episode:

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