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March 2025 Presale Pulse

March 21, 2025

March 2025 Real Estate Market Insights

Welcome to the March 2025 episode of the Presale Pulse, a real estate show brought to you by hosts Suzana Goncalves and Brittany Reimer. Watch the video to understand the latest macroeconomics, presale, and resale trends over the last 30 days affecting the local real estate market across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. 

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Macroeconomics: Balancing Inflation, Job Gains, and Interest Rate Uncertainty 

In February, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley’s macroeconomic environment reflected a mix of resilience and uncertainty. Inflation in January edged up slightly to 1.9% from 1.8% in December, a figure that, while within the Bank of Canada’s target, was artificially tempered by a temporary GST break. Without this tax adjustment, inflation would have been notably higher, highlighting persistent cost pressures in non-housing sectors. At the same time, GDP growth defied expectations, with the fourth quarter posting a strong 2.6% increase, up from previous forecasts, and the third quarter’s figures revised upward to 2.2%. The labour market also showed unexpected strength, adding over 76,000 new jobs in January and pushing unemployment down to 6.6%. 

Under normal circumstances, these factors—rising inflation, solid economic growth, and job gains—would deter the Bank of Canada from cutting rates. However, external pressures, including shifting US tariff policies, add an element of unpredictability. With nearly 40% of Canada’s manufacturing workforce tied to US demand, any future trade disruptions could have significant consequences, putting pressure on policymakers to adjust course. As uncertainty looms, all eyes remain on the Bank of Canada’s next moves in the months ahead.

Presale: Slow but Steady—602 Units Launched in February

After a silent January with no project launches, February saw a much-needed uptick in presale activity across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. While only half of the anticipated projects moved forward, a total of 602 units were brought to market. Developers remain cautious, often holding back launches unless early interest and preview activity indicate strong buyer demand. Despite engaged realtors and well-attended events, February’s absorption rate came in at just 15%, with 93 units sold—significantly lower than the 50% absorption rate seen in February last year. Buyers continue to exercise patience, comparing offerings across multiple markets to maximize value. Looking ahead, March is set to bring five new project launches, totaling 721 units, with a mix of concrete, wood-frame, and townhome developments. The Fraser Valley remains the most active region, with notable exceptions in Richmond, where Camden Square and Park Residences II – Building C are finally preparing to launch after extended anticipation. As developers navigate shifting market conditions, all eyes will be on how these projects perform in the coming weeks.

Resale: Inventory Surges as Buyers Stay Cautious

February saw a welcome uptick in resale activity across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, with sales rising 17.7% and 12.5% month-over-month, respectively. While this increase aligns with typical seasonal trends, overall sales remain well below historical averages—29% lower in Greater Vancouver and 38% lower in the Fraser Valley compared to their 10-year norms. Meanwhile, inventory continues to build, with active listings surging 32.3% year-over-year in Greater Vancouver and 45.1% in the Fraser Valley, pushing the latter firmly into buyer’s market territory with a sales-to-listings ratio of 11%. Despite the rising supply, prices have remained relatively stable, with Greater Vancouver seeing a slight 0.3% month-over-month increase, while Fraser Valley experienced a 3.9% decline. Many buyers appear to be waiting on the sidelines, but sellers are holding firm, leading to a market characterized by high inventory, cautious demand, and relatively steady pricing.

Presale Projects mentioned in this episode:

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