April 4, 2024 Rising Inventory and Renewed Optimism in Metro Vancouver Resale

The resale market is evolving this spring with a noticeable rise in inventory levels, providing buyers with more choices and the potential for a more balanced market. Despite this, seller's market dynamics remain strong, as evidenced by high sales-to-listings ratios. Yet, optimism is growing, driven by anticipated interest rate reductions from the Bank of Canada, which may boost buyer activity in the coming months. 

Spring Market Kicks Off with Improving Supply Conditions  

Greater Vancouver’s real estate landscape has seen a significant shift, offering a glimmer of hope for buyers this Spring. The latest data reveals a 23% year-over-year increase in homes on the MLS®, marking a notable rise to 10,552 active listings at the end of the month. This is 6.3% above the 10-year average and the highest supply conditions have been for March since 2020. Despite positive increases in listings however, the market still favours sellers, with the sales-to-listings ratio reaching 23.8% at the end of the month. 

In March, there were a total of 2,415 resales, marking a 4.7% decrease compared to the same month last year and standing 31.2% below the ten-year average. This decline was pronounced in condominium and detached product which declined 7.9% and 5.4%, respectively. Against the backdrop of these figures, the market saw 5,002 new listings, representing a 15.9% year-over-year increase. While subject to the increasing momentum we may experience in the Spring, this surge in new listings suggests a movement towards more balanced market conditions as we head into the late Spring and Summer months. 

A key influence shaping the current market is the anticipated reduction in interest rates by the Bank of Canada, which could bolster the purchasing power of prospective buyers. This potential shift might draw pent-up demand back into the market later in the year. However, this potential relief in borrowing costs is unlikely to significantly alleviate the broader affordability challenges faced by many buyers. 

View Stats Package

Seasonally Subdued Sales, and Growing Supply in the Fraser Valley 

In the Fraser Valley, sales activity was slower than expected, with March inventory levels reaching the highest it’s been in the past five years. This surplus in supply provides buyers with more options to choose from in the market, and with interest rates still at elevated levels, some buyers remained on the sidelines. 

In March, resales in the Fraser Valley reached 1,395, marking a 13% increase from February. However, this figure remains 31% below the 10-year average. The month-over-month increase, though slower than expected, is attributed to typical seasonal patterns of heightened activity during Spring. Active listings in the region totalled 6,197 in March, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous month and a 37% year-over-year rise. 

Overall, in March the market has maintained in seller's market territory, evidenced by a sales-to-active listings ratio of 23%. Notably, the average days-on-market (DOM) has decreased across all product forms to 11 days in March from 13 days in February. While there's already a sense of optimism returning to the market, this sentiment is expected to intensify further once interest rates begin to decline. 

The MLS® HPI composite benchmark saw another month-to-month increase of 1.4% from February to $1,008,300. Values in the region remain up 4.6% year-over-year but are 15.7% below values seen at the peak of the market in March 2022. 

View the Stats Package

Modest Start to Greater Victoria’s Spring Market 

In March 2024, the resale market in Greater Victoria saw a slight decrease in sales compared to the previous year, with 588 properties sold, but a 25.1% increase from February 2024. Condominium resales decreased by 10.2% to 177 units sold year-over-year, while the benchmark price for a condominium in the Victoria Core experienced a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, rising to $567,300 in March 2024 from March 2023. 

Active listings in the region increased significantly to 2,647, up 34.4% from the previous year, indicating a healthier market with more options available, especially in the condominium and townhome sectors. This influx of inventory is contributing to a more balanced market, offering a greater variety of choices and fostering buyer confidence. 

View the Stats Package